金子到底值多少美金？

万得福

金子到底值多少美金？
万得福
2014年十一月底，瑞士对黄金储备的比例进行了公投，结果78%反对增加比例，也就是说right side 那些支持增持黄金的人，只占了发达国家人群中的约 20%。 我们假设一下，如果金银本位的话，金子到底该值多少美金？


这个世界上总共有171,300吨金子。 （http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-21969100）。
32.15 troy ounces = 1 kilogram，按市价$1200/盎司， 总共32.15 x1000x171300 x $1200 =  $6,608,754,000,000。也就是$6.6万亿。 如果是黄金本位的话，这应该是世界的总货币储备。
美国央行有8000吨 （http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserve）。32.15 x1000x8000 x $1200 = $308,640,000,000。也就是3千亿。这应该是美国政府的总货币储备。


如果货币总价值等于社会财富总价值话，现在世界总财富是241万亿（https://publications.credit-suis ... D9-6D0361266E44A2F8， page 89），黄金总价6.6万亿，金价是不是应该等于现价乘（241/6.6 = 36.5）, 那也是$4万4千/盎司。

再算美国。
金子持有： 珠宝50%，私人18.7%， 政府17.4%, 其他13.4%. http://demonocracy.info/infographics/world/gold/gold.html
美国总黄金持有大约 8000/0.174=4万7千吨。如果货币总价值等于社会财富总价值话， 那美国社会财富总价值岂不只有一万七千亿？
据说（http://online.wsj.com/articles/S ... 4579423183397213204）美国的财富已经是80万亿了，所以美国金价应该为（800000/（3000x1000x32.15) =$5.3万/盎司.

也就是说，如果这个世界是金本位的话，一盎司金子应值$4.4 - $5.3万美金。
当然， 只是金本位的话，金子就太值钱了，流通起来，反而不方便。不过，还有银子。

世界上的银子共有1百4十万吨，http://demonocracy.info/infographics/world/silver/silver.html。按现价$20/盎司算，32.15 x1000x1400000 x $20 = 9千亿。 还不到一万亿。 据说地壳的银含量要更高，只是现在银子太便宜，没人做这亏本买卖。

金/银价格比，从1980以来，平均差不多是1：60。 1980年以前，差不多是30-40之间，1940年代好像忽然金子很值钱，将近1：100了。http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_as_an_investment
我们的老祖宗好像一直是以1：10比例兑换金银（不准确，请大家指正），好像和现在金银储备相当。但是研究显示，地壳中金银含量的比例大约室1：65。只是开采成本太高，没有完全开采而已。 所以最近40年的均值1：60大概是以地壳金银含量比例为参照作的计算的。

金银本位，金和银合起来，按1：60 的价格比，也只是相当于将金子的量增加一倍，等于世界的总财富，算下来，一盎司金子应值$2.2 - $2.65万美金， 一盎司银子应值$366 - $442美金。
当然了，从瑞士公投的结果看，这个世界上发达国家中，支持金银本位的也就20%左右。

ssgo2008

金本位结束了差不多100年了， 再纠结没意义。

万得福

ssgo2008 发表于 2014-12-1 11:51
金本位结束了差不多100年了， 再纠结没意义。

呵呵，是吗？

archers

金本位似乎不太合理，我老总觉得不对头。

老万何不加精？

ssgo2008

万得福 发表于 2014-12-1 12:06
呵呵，是吗？

到了血流成河的时候，黄金也不值钱。  

万得福

November 27, 2015  by Samuel Bryan

On Tuesday, the US Mint announced it has sold out of one-ounce 2015 American Gold Eagles. Mint officials say they don’t plan to produce any more at this time.
Earlier this month, the mint announced it had run out of one-tenth and one-fourth ounce Gold Eagles.
The tremendous demand for gold bullion coins we’ve seen over the last several months continues unabated in November. Buyers have already snatched up 80,500 1-ounce Gold Eagles this month. Combining all coin sizes, total Gold Eagle sales stand at 199,500 in November.
According to a report recently released by the World Gold Council, investment demand helped pushoverall gold demand up 8% in the third quarter  compared to the third quarter of 2014. Investment demand surged 27% to 230 tons in Q3. Gold bar and coin demand hit the highest level in the US in five years. Gold Eagle coins are selling at the highest rate since the financial crisis.
Total American Gold Eagle sales as of Nov. 26 stood at 1,838,500 ounces. That compares with 1,144,500 in all of 2014.
American Silver Eagle sales have been equally brisk. As we reported earlier this month, the US Mint ison pace to break a record this year.
The Mint also announced Tuesday that it will stop producing 2015-dated Silver Eagle coins after the week of Dec. 7. The mint said in an email that it expects the last American Eagle silver bullion allocation of the year to be on Dec. 14:

Despite the weekly rationing, American Eagle silver coin sales this year have so far reached nearly 43.7 million ounces, making them on track to exceed the 44 million ounces of 2014.”

In October, Silver News reported the US Mint, the Royal Canadian Mint, Australia’s Perth Mint, the Austrian Mint, and the British Royal Mint recently all put their silver bullion coins on allocation at the same time.

Restriction from multiple mints at the same time is unprecedented and illustrates considerable tightness in the current global silver coin business.”

With the US Mint winding down production of 2015 Gold and Silver Eagle coins, and continued high demand, it’s important to avoid getting scammed by unscrupulous dealers who might take advantage of these dynamics to raise the price of 2015-dated coins. Just because these coins sell out does not mean they are suddenly worth more. No matter what year they were minted in, Gold Eagle coins are still one ounce of gold bullion, and that is ultimately what you are investing in.